Tonight the Democratic presidential race really is down to two. Presidential also-ran Mike Gravel joined the Libertarian Party today (hat tip: Freedom Democrats). Democrats may not care. Democrats may not have to care.
But they might. The potential is there - albeit a remote one - for him to be a true spoiler in November.
While Gravel’s campaign to date has been at times, um … bizarre, the former US Senator from Alaska would give the LP ticket a boost of credibility that the likes of Steve Kubby, Mary Ruwart, Christine Smith, Wayne Allyn “Millionaire Republican” Root or even former US Rep. Bob Barr couldn’t even come close to. Gravel’s anti-war credentials are as strong as anyone’s. He’s a solid supporter of LGBT rights, Social Security and universal health care. He’s also better known than any of the current LP candidates, by far.
A few things have to happen. First, to embrace Gravel the Libertarians would have to shed their Ron Paul-fanboy and “Trekkies Against the Post Office” reputation. While I think doing so would do them a world of good with or without Gravel, I don’t see it happening.
Second, Democrats would have to nominate Hillary Clinton. The “small-l” libertarian element out there has been warming up to Barack Obama quite a bit, and like a lot of other factions in our “big tent,” would be very unlikely to abandon him regardless of what happens elsewhere.
But I know a quite a few libertarian Democrats who, if found in a position where Hillary and Gravel are on the November ballot (but not Obama), would give the erstwhile Alaskan more than a second look. If you need a new reason to support Obama, I think you’ve found one.
I don’t think this is a particularly likely scenario, but I do think it’s more likely than another Ralph Nader-inspired fiasco.
Having been there and done that myself on the whole third party bit, frankly I’m disappointed in Gravel. While our loss is the Libertarian Party’s gain, I don’t think he’s going to find what he’s looking for there.
Mike Gravel probably could have done a lot more in terms of influencing politics from within the Democratic Party then he ever can outside of it. While not completely in line with my own positions on every issue, nor with the DFC’s completely, he was a strong voice for Freedom in our Party, and could have helped forward the movement nationaly. As to the Libertarian Party accepting him? It depends on their goals. If they only desire ballot access, credibilty with a wider range of voter to increase there total vote, then they will nominate him. But if they are, as they’ve only proved to be in the past, devoted to there own, and some (including myself) would say narrow, interpretation of Liberty, he won’t have a chance. This is because econimicaly he is a populist. He has more in common with John Edwards and to a lesser extant Mike Huckabee (remember, I’m talking econimicaly here) than Rob Oates’ Ron Paul, or Bob Barr. It appears his goal is simply to run for President, and seeing he had no chance of effecting the discourse in the Democratic debates, especialy after being shut out of them completely, he decided to try the Third Party route. Given what I’ve said regarding how the hard core Libertarians will view him, I think he would be better off instigating a rebirth of the Populist Party.
Contrary to what they might claim, none of the contemporary third parties are big on things like “tolerance” or “diversity.” If you’re not in line, you’re ostracized.
Apparently Barr is going for the Libertarian Party nomination with Ron Paul’s support (at least his tacit support). If so that’ll effectively shut Gravel - and the more progressive libertarian element - out of the LP for the foreseeable future.
The flip side is with Barr as the LP nominee, the effect on the Democratic ticket will be virtually nil regardless of whether our nominee is Obama or Clinton. Barr is a much bigger problem for McCain.
I agree Gravel has more in common with Edwards than Barr. He could have used that fact to his advantage within the Democratic Party, perhaps even with the DFC. But he didn’t, he bolted to the Libertarians, and in all probability they’ll snub him too. The best Gravel can hope for is Barr’s VP slot, and I’m not sure if that’s a place where he wants to be. This was a major mistake on his part.